Exxon, Occidental, and the AI Bet on Carbon Storage

AI could sharpen carbon capture economics, but the industry’s big breakthrough is still unfolding

13 Feb 2026

The US carbon capture industry is expanding its infrastructure base, even as questions remain over whether artificial intelligence can materially improve project economics.

Large energy companies are increasing storage capacity and advancing direct air capture (DAC) facilities, while researchers examine how AI could refine project design and performance. The commercial impact of such tools, however, remains at an early stage.

ExxonMobil has secured one of the largest offshore CO₂ storage leases in US waters, covering about 271,000 acres off the Texas coast. The group operates an extensive carbon dioxide pipeline network and is developing carbon capture systems along the Gulf Coast aimed at serving multiple industrial customers. These projects form part of a regional “hub” model, though many remain in phased development.

Occidental, through its subsidiary 1PointFive, has progressed its STRATOS direct air capture plant after receiving a Class VI permit from the US Environmental Protection Agency. The approval marks a regulatory step forward for large-scale DAC. Yet sustained operations and full commercial output have still to be demonstrated.

Alongside these industrial efforts, a peer-reviewed study in Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy assessed how AI techniques might improve planning across carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Researchers found that advanced data models could support site selection, pipeline routing and storage performance analysis across the capture and sequestration chain.

Most AI applications in CCUS remain at research, pilot or early adoption stages. There is little public evidence that such tools have delivered industry-wide cost reductions or significantly altered investment decisions. For now, AI appears to function as an analytical layer that may enhance efficiency rather than transform the sector.

Federal tax incentives and Department of Energy funding continue to support shared transport and storage networks, reinforcing the hub approach. Permitting timelines, long-term liability rules and community opposition remain constraints.

The industry is building capacity but has yet to reach broad commercial scale. AI may become a useful enabler, though its role will depend on whether projects can demonstrate durable economics in the years ahead.